Tom Brady’s homecoming at Gillette Stadium will bring out every emotion in the sports fan playbook; anger, appreciation, and maybe, hopefully, some sentimentality. Buccaneers-Patriots Sunday Night Football is going to be everything.
While seeing their old QB wearing pewter will feel weird, Patriots fans will get a front-row seat to something they know well: Brady making history. The 44-year-old is a mere 68 yards away from becoming the all-time NFL passing yards leader.
Considering he’s throwing for 362 yards per game, it’s a pretty safe bet he’ll top Drew Brees’s 80,358 career yards by night’s end. But how many throws will it take him to get there? Let’s take a look at this prop bet.
The under/over is set at 5.5 completions until Brady hits 68 yards. For context, it took Brady five throws to reach 68 yards in Week 1, four throws in Week 2, and an out of character 12 in Week 3.
If Brady wants to crack the record early, he’ll rely on another guy who’s making his homecoming rounds. Rob Gronkowski is off to a hot start this season with 184 yards and four touchdowns in three games. A prop bet to consider is Gronk finishing with more than 68.5 receiving yards and .5 touchdowns at +450 ($100 → $450). (The x-ray on his injured ribs last week came back negative, but keep that in mind, too.)
If player props aren’t your speed, the line is set for the Buccaneers at -7, meaning Tampa Bay would need to win by more than seven points. Brady sits 28-20-1 against the spread (ATS) for his career as the road favorite by at least seven points. On the flip side, Bill Belichick has only been a home underdog by seven points or more three times since 2000, going 2-1 ATS.
The Takeaway 🎲
The Patriots are in unfamiliar territory against their former franchise star as a sizable underdog. Brady has been solid ATS as a strong favorite, though. If it’s too painful as a New England fan to wager against your own team, consider choosing player props to support Gronk and TB12.