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A Week 3 player prop based on your latest Netflix binge

Your Netflix watch history says a lot about you. But what does it say about how you should bet the Week 3 NFL game slate?

Player Props

We had to withstand 205 painstaking days without NFL football this offseason. How did you spend your time? Hopefully, you spent some time outdoors, enjoying time with family and friends, traveling, or whatever it is you like to do. If you’re like me, however, you may have spent entirely too much time watching Netflix.

My Netflix account is already starting to feel a bit neglected since the start of football season, so I thought I’d show it a little love by giving fans of each series one player prop they should consider ahead of Week 3.

 

Cobra Kai V…

As the Cobra Kai empire expands, so does the wreckage of its new leader — Terry Silver. His methodology is chaotic. It isn’t always ideal, popular (…or legal), but he always finds a way to win out. If you’re looking to cause some chaos like Terry this week, consider betting Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 272.5 passing yards against the Bills.

Betting against Tua after one of the most impressive fourth-quarter performances in recent memory may feel like choosing violence, but the stats back it up. Through two weeks, the Bills have allowed just 363 passing yards total, including just a single touchdown and five interceptions. Whip that combo together, and you get a combined passer rating of 51.0 to opposing quarterbacks. Pair this with the fact that Tagovailoa has exceeded 270 passing yards in just seven of his 22 career starts, and you’ve got plenty of reasons to bet the under. Sorry, Tua. I don’t think you’re ready for this jelly.

You win if: Tua Tagovailoa passes for 272 yards or fewer! Bet $11.40 for a $10 profit and take home $21.40.

 

You…

Much like our anti-hero, Joe Goldberg, you’re a little obsessive. That’s okay. We’re not here to judge. You set your sights on a player and lock in… kind of like how Marcus Mariota has done with a certain studly rookie wide receiver. Consider betting the Drake London OVER 55.5 receiving yards against the Seahawks.

London boasts a 33.3% team target share so far in his short career, having produced 74 and 83 receiving yards respectively in his first two weeks of action. Seattle has allowed 16.1 yards per reception and a league-high 8.1 yards after the catch to opposing wide receivers. Safety Jamal Adams is likely out for the season, and as they continue to spread themselves thin, this secondary will have plenty of trouble matching up with Drake.

You win if: Drake London has 56 or more receiving yards! Bet $11.40 for a $10 profit and take home $21.40.

 

Making a Murderer

You are always looking to avenge those who have been wronged! This Week, that’s Carson Wentz, who faces the Philadelphia Eagles for the first time since being traded to the Colts in the 2021 offseason. Well, maybe he hasn’t been wronged, per se, but I’m guessing he rolls into this matchup feeling like it. This week, consider betting on Carson Wentz OVER 257.5 passing yards.

There are a few reasons to buy into Wentz this week. The first is his performance so far this season, with 650 passing yards, 7 TDs and 3 INTs in the first two games of the season. He can clean up the turnovers, 3The second is totally narrative-based. On a human level, I do want to see Wentz put up a solid game against his former team (or at the very least, not have a Primetime Kirk Cousins level implosion. The third and final reason stems back to the Commanders defense. This unit has put this offense in a position where they need to pass.

  • Tied for third-most points allowed (58)
  • Tied for sixth-most yards allowed (808)
  • Tied for second-most yards per play allowed (6.6)

You win if: Carson Wentz throws for 258 or more passing yards! Bet $11.40 for a $10 profit and take home $21.40.

 

Schitt’s Creek…

There are so many wholesome lessons that we learned watching the Rose family completely out of their element in the town of Schitt’s Creek. One of my favorites was that amazing things can happen when you embrace stepping out of your comfort zone. This week, I’m stepping outside of my comfort zone by betting Ryan Tannehill OVER 207.5 passing yards after his colossal Week 2 collapse against the Bills in prime time.

There was quite literally not a single quarterback to attempt a pass in Week 2 that had a worse PFF passing grade. The Titans conceded to the Bills in the third quarter, pulling Tannehill out of the game to get rookie Malik Willis some action. The Bills held Tannehill to a passer rating of 32.7, the worst he’s ever had under center for the Titans. Let’s be fair though. He was facing the Bills Defense (See above for details). Is there a chance Tannehill is pulled for Willis for real? I don’t think so. Not yet, at least. It’s not as though he did much better under center, ranking dead-last among QBs this week with an abysmal 1.5 yards per pass attempt.

You win if: Ryan Tannehill passes for 208 or more yards! Bet $11.40 for a $10 profit and take home $21.40.

 

Stranger Things…

You’re a huge fan of the supernatural, believe in the unbelievable and are no stranger to looking fear straight in the eye. That’s why betting longshot odds will never scare you off. Let’s face it, if you can escape Vecna unscathed, there’s nothing you can’t do. That’s why you, my danger-seeking friend, might consider betting the ultimate player prop parlays to end all parlays with ALL of the player props suggested above. That’s right. You’re gonna package all of the following:

  • Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 272.5 passing yards (-114)
  • Drake London OVER 55.5 receiving yards (-114)
  • Carson Wentz OVER 257.5 passing yards (-114)
  • Ryan Tannehill OVER 207.5 passing yards (-114)

A parlay (AKA, a bunch of single bets packaged together for one giant super-bet) allows you to enjoy all of the risk your heart can handle. High risk, high reward. Welcome to the Hellfire Club, everyone. 

You win if: All of those single bets listed above cash out! Bet $10 to win $56.13 profit and take home $66.13. It sure does sound appealing with that kind of cash-out, but don’t forget — if just ONE of these bets doesn’t hit, you lose your bet! Wondering how the sportsbooks calculate those odds? There’s some fancy math involved that we won’t bore you with. It’s usually easiest to let the sportsbooks calculate the odds automatically, or to use a handy calculator like this one courtesy of The Action Network.

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