It’s a pretty safe bet to say the Alabama Crimson Tide will earn a victory on Saturday against the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles. The overwhelming No. 1 college football team in the nation and defending national champion Crimson Tide are a heavy favorite, led by Nick Saban, with a winning record longer than your quarantine grocery list.

But is it safe to say that Alabama will cover the massive 45-point spread, which means they’ll have to win by 46 or more points? (Holy moly!)

This season the Tide are 3-0, but just 1-2 against the spread. That’s in part because Alabama is averaging 24 points in the first half, but lifting their foot off the gas a bit in the second, averaging a mere 13.5 points.

In a Week 2 gimme game against Mercer, the Crimson Tide scored just 17 points in the second half after scoring 17 in the second quarter alone. A 48-14 win came nowhere close to the 53.5-point spread.

This is a common trend for Alabama. In 2020, the team’s first-half average was 29.4 points, compared to 19.1 in the second half. And in 2019, the Tide averaged 26.8 points in the first half, against 18.9 second-half points. They’re so good that the second half doesn’t always matter much.

If you don’t feel comfortable betting on Bama for a whopping 46-point dub, check out the -28.5 first-half spread for the home team at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Term of the day

CFB Week 4: Only The Spread Can Beat Bama

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