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TCU vs. Georgia: 5 longshot bets for the CFP National Championship


Author: Dan TreadwayPublished: 01/09/23

On Monday evening, the college football universe will focus its eyes on Los Angeles where TCU and Georga will compete for a national championship.

According to the latest odds from FanDuel, Georgia is favored to win by at least 13.5 points and the total points expected to be scored sits at 62.5. If you’re looking for a casual, breezy evening of betting, you can place a wager on either of these items and enjoy a nice—slightly more eventful—national championship game.

Buuuuuut, if you want to make things just a little more interesting. Here are some longshot parlays you can place on the game based on the same thing that fuels most parlays: Just a hunch. Full disclosure, these probably won’t hit. That’s why they pay better than your average bet. But according to some (me), they are very fun... and could hit. But they probably won't. But... maybe they will!!!

The Hunch: “TCU is a second-half team!”

The bet: UGA first half moneyline AND TCU full game moneyline (+1493) You win if: Georgia is winning at the end of the first half of the game AND TCU wins the entire game outright. Bet $10 to win $149.30 profit!

Why it's worth taking a swing: Throughout the year, TCU were the comeback kids of college football. They finished with seven second-half comebacks on the season, which accounted for more than half of their wins. If you’re expecting a little more magic to happen Monday night, you can make a nice little profit.

While just betting on TCU to win the game outright pays out at +375 (bet $10 to win $37.50), if you include Georgia winning at the end of the first half, the payout balloons to +1493 (bet $10 to win $149.30). Also betting on different teams in different halves is just sort of a weird, fun way to watch a game. 

The Hunch: “UGA is going to smother them”

The bet: TCU under 24.5 total points score AND Max Duggan under 240.5 passing yards AND Max Duggan under 30.5 rushing yards AND Quentin Johnston under 81.5 receiving yards (+520)

You win if: TCU scores less than 25 points, Max Duggan is held to under 241 passing yards, and 31 rushing yards and Quentin Johnston is held under 81.5 receiving yards. Bet $10 to win $52 profit.

Why it's worth taking a swing: UGA got absolutely lit up by Ohio State, no other way to cut it. The Buckeyes put up 41 points and quarterback CJ Stroud threw for nearly 350 yards against the Bulldogs. Given that was the last result we saw from UGA, people might be inclined to believe their defense is fallible. But the numbers from the rest of the season paint a different picture.

Georgia finished the season ranked #2 in defensive efficiency. They held their opponents to 20 points or fewer on 10 different occasions. Given their somewhat embarrassing showing last time out of the game, this bet is based on the expectation they’ll come out angry and play dominant football. 

The Hunch: “It’s gonna be a shootout”

The bet: Stetson Bennett 300+ passing yards AND Max Duggan 300+ passing yards AND Brock Bowers 100+ yards receiving AND Quentin Johnston 100+ receiving yards AND Georgia over 38.5 points scored AND TCU over 24.5 points scored pays out (+5526)

You win if: Basically everybody on both teams goes off. Bet $10 to win $552.60 profit!

Why it's worth taking a swing: The college football playoff semifinals were legit insane. Just absolutely unhinged football. Every team involved in both games scored at least 40 points. If you’re expecting more of the same—and you want to profit handsomely from it—this is the bet for you.

Essentially you’re wagering that Stetson Bennett and Max Duggan will both go off in this game. In addition, both of their top receiving threats — future NFL first-rounders Quentin Johnston and Brock Bowers — will both go for more than 100 yards each. If that happens and both teams surpass their project point totals, congrats, go buy yourself a new PS5. 

The Hunch: “Georgia will run wild”

The bet: Kenny McIntosh 100+ yards rushing AND Kenny McIntosh scores 2 TDs (+956)

You win if: Kenny McIntosh rushes for over 100+ yards and scores at least two touchdowns (rushing or receiving). Bet $10 to win $95.60 profit!

Why it's worth taking a swing: While the headlines from TCU’s semi-final game against Michigan mostly focused on their massive upset, the fact that they got shredded on the ground by the Wolverines was mostly lost. Despite being forced to throw most of the game due to being behind, Michigan ran for nearly 200 total yards and scored 3 touchdowns on the ground against TCU.

This bet is based on the belief that Georgia will use their SEC size to push around the Horned Frogs' 3-3-5 base defense. UGA running back Kenny McIntosh has 10 TDs on the season and should be the bell cow in this spot. If he has a big game, you’ll need a bigger wallet. 

The Hunch: “Max Duggan is gonna play hero ball”

The bet: Max Duggan over 275 passing yards AND Max Duggan over 50 rushing yards AND Max Duggan 2 rushing TD AND TCU moneyline pays out +29152(!)

You win if: Max Duggan has over 276 or more passing yards, 51 or more rushing yards, scores two rushing touchdowns and TCU wins the game outright. Bet $10 to win $2,915.28!

Why it's worth taking a swing: Max Duggan has been absolutely electric this season. The Heisman finalist capped it off with a legendary performance against Michigan in which he was simply undeniable, throwing for two touchdowns and running for another two. The chances he’s able to repeat that performance against a very stout Georgia defense are limited. But we did just watch CJ Stroud put up some gaudy numbers.

This is the longest of long-shot bets, but if Duggan is able to play the game of his life and TCU pulls one of the biggest upsets in college football history, you’ll be able to afford a nice vacation to reflect on what a genius you are for throwing 10 bucks at this. And when/if it loses, it was a total long shot, what were you thinking? Geez, be more responsible.


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