It’s important to remember the context of this division “rivalry,” if we can even call it that. The Chiefs swept Vegas last season by a combined score of 89-23 and have won 13 of 15 matchups. Kansas City has scored at least 28 in eight straight matchups, averaging 37.4 PPG over that stretch.

The Raiders have basically been a scrimmage for Pat Mahomes and the gang. He’s 6-0 SU against the Raiders and 4-2 ATS, covering by 10.3 PPG. The Chiefs have been wildly pass-heavy this season, and Vegas’s pass defense remains terrible. Vegas is also awful defensively in the red zone, where the Chiefs are magic. Kansas City has owned this matchup.

Can the Chiefs cover though? Mahomes has only covered two of his last eight division games as more than a seven-point favorite, and Monday night division favorites over seven points have covered only 3-of-11 (27%) over the past decade, losing six times outright.

And remember our big early division underdogs trend (60% ATS)? Those teams are an ugly 13-60-1 SU, losing by 10.8 PPG with -29% ROI over the last decade, and only three of the last 20 have won. But two of those three wins came against the Chiefs — one by the Raiders.

I lean Chiefs, but only to -7 and no further. Instead, I prefer Kansas City’s team over. Mahomes overs are 25-18-1 with totals above 51. If the Raiders do cover, it’ll likely be because they finally converted in the red zone and won a Monday night shootout. The Chiefs are getting their points either way.