The Bills sit atop the AFC East (3-1) while the Chiefs are struggling, falling to last place (2-2) in the AFC West. This matchup has huge playoff seeding ramifications, not to mention Buffalo is looking for revenge after losing twice last season to KC.

The key for the Bills is slowing the high-powered Kansas City offense. This might be the year they have the answer, boasting the No. 1 ranked pass defense (allowing 148.8 yards per game) and No. 4 rush defense (68.0), while allowing the fewest points per game in the league (11).

Buffalo’s offense is nothing to scoff at either, as the club has posted three weeks of dominant wins, outscoring opponents 118-21! QB Josh Allen leads an absolute freight-train of an offense averaging 297.3 passing yards per game (5th) and 145.3 yards rushing (5th). Buffalo is the only squad in the league to hold a top-5 offense and defense.

And guess who’s tied for second-highest points per game scored? The Bills & Chiefs with 33.5.

If you don’t feel comfortable betting against Mahomes (we don’t blame you), consider betting the over at 56.5. The over is a whopping 5-0 in Buffalo’s last five games as an underdog.

KC’s offense is right on par with Buffalo, second in total yards per game (427.5), but the defense is abysmal, ranked last in points allowed (31.3), 29th in rushing yards (146) and 27th in passing yards (291.8).

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The Takeaway

It’ll be tough to stop Patrick Mahomes as he leads all QBs in TDs (14), is third in passer rating (119.6), and fifth in yards per game (304.5). But if anyone can slow him, it’s Bills Mafia which owns the most takeaways in the NFL (11). In addition, recent history isn’t in the Chief’s favor as they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games at Arrowhead.

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