The 2022 NFL postseason kicked off, and Divisional Round odds are officially live! Who's projected to advance to the AFC and NFC Conference Championships?
We break down the odds for each Divisional Round matchup in the 2022-23 NFL playoffs, and most importantly, what they all mean.
Saturday, Jan. 21
No. 4 Jaguars vs. No. 1 Chiefs: 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Point spread: Chiefs -8.5
Point total: 51.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -450 (Bet $45 to win $10 profit if the Chiefs win), Jaguars +350 (Bet $10 to win $35 profit if the Jaguars win)
Translation — what do the odds mean?
Our condolences go out to the Jaguars for drawing the most daunting matchup in the Divisional Round. Vegas projects this as the highest-scoring matchup of the Divisional Round at 51.5 points, making this an interesting spot for fans of player props and daily fantasy sports (DFS) games. The perpetually underrated Jaguars (who posted the third-largest comeback win in postseason history in the WildCard Round) could be of particular value, especially in a spot where they're projected to be chasing the points of the league's soon-to-be-crowned NFL MVP.
Rapid-reaction best bet: Chiefs -8.5 (to win by 9 or more points)
No. 6 Giants vs. No. 1 Eagles: 8:15 p.m. ET on Fox
Point spread: Eagles -7.5
Point total: 46.5
Moneyline: Eagles -330 (Bet $33 to win $10 profit if the Eagles win), Giants +265 (Bet $10 to win $26.50 profit if the Giants win)
Translation — what do the odds mean?
Big surprise — the No. 1 seed is projected to win, and Vegas thinks it will be by at LEAST a touchdown. The Giants lost both of their in-season matchups against the Eagles by at least eight points. So, why isn't the projected margin of victory higher for the NFC's No. 1 seed?
One theory is that the odds are telling us something about the health of QB Jalen Hurts heading into the Divisional Round. It was no secret that Jalen Hurts was playing through pain in his return from a shoulder injury. In fact, prior to the bye, in his return from injury, he had one of his most disappointing games of the season against — who else — the Giants. In that outing, he posted 242 total yards, zero touchdowns, and an interception for his second-lowest passer rating in any game this year.
Chew on this, though. The Giants have won their last six playoff games against opposing No. 1 seeds, dating back to 1990. Maybe we shouldn't be so quick to toss the Brian Daboll-led G-Men aside. Despite Hurts' 3-1 record over the Giants as a starter, he's averaged a 57% completion rate and just under 200 pass yards per game. In those four games, Hurts has totaled just four passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown and four interceptions — not his best football.
Rapid-reaction best bet: Giants +7.5 (to win outright, or lose by 7 or fewer points)
Sunday, Jan. 22
No. 4 Bengals vs. No. 3 Bills: 3 p.m. ET on CBS
Point spread: Bills -4
Point total: 50.5
Moneyline: Bills -210 (Bet $21 to win $10 profit if the Bills win), Bengals +176 (Bet $10 to win $17.60 profit if the Bengals win)
Translation — what do the odds mean?
This week, we'll finally get the Bengals-Bills showdown we had been waiting for. The Bills are at -4, which means they're projected to win by four or more points, aka MORE than a field goal.
Undoubtedly, Buffalo gets the edge being at home, but it's worth wondering if this could be a potential upset on the horizon. Rookie Skylar Thompson & Co. did just enter Highmark Stadium and drop 31 points on them despite being 13.5-point underdogs, after all.
Rapid-reaction best bet: Under 50.5 points (Bengals and Bills to combine for 50 or fewer points)
No. 5 Cowboys vs. No. 2 49ers: 6:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Point spread: 49ers -4
Point total: 46.5
Moneyline: 49ers -194 (Bet $19.40 to win $10 profit if the 49ers win), Cowboys +162 (Bet $10 to win $16.20 profit if the Cowboys win)
Translation — what do the odds mean?
The 49ers are projected to win over the Cowboys by MORE THAN a field goal. After watching the Cowboys' dominant performance over the Bucs, this might feel like (at first glance) oddsmakers aren't properly respecting Dallas.
Yes, the Cowboys looked pretty darn good in their victory over the Bucs in the Wild Card Round. However, what we need to consider is that their 8-9 playoff opponent had quietly struggled most of the season to shut down opposing quarterbacks. In Weeks 10-18, the Bucs allowed the fourth-highest passer rating to opposing QBs (97.2), tied for the third-most passing touchdowns (15) and fourth-fewest interceptions (4).
The 49ers have the best defense in the league. They also have a top-five offense. Oh, and they also have home-field advantage. They sure are going to be a challenge to beat...
Rapid-reaction best bet: 49ers -4
(Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
