Yes, I know that we're not even 24 hours out from the Super Bowl. I still say there's never a bad time to look ahead! Odds for the winner of Super Bowl 58 are officially live, and to say there were some surprises is to put it lightly. Here's some of what you need to know about the odds (and what we can learn from them).
Need to brush up on your betting terminology first? Head over to The GS Betting Academy first for a quick lesson!
Now, onto our takeaways!
Here are the teams ranking top-five in Super Bowl odds. They'll look super familiar because four of the five were just featured in the Divisional Round.
Kansas City Chiefs +600 (Bet $100 to win $600 profit if they win)
Buffalo Bills (+850)
Philadelphia Eagles (+900)
Cincinnati Bengals (+900)
San Francisco 49ers (+900)
The Lions, Jaguars and Jets are all trending up — each tied for the 10th best odds to win Super Bowl 58 at +2500 (Bet $100 to win $2,500 profit if they win for a take-home total of $2,600). Who'd have thought that would be the case coming out of last season? Goodness, I love football.
Anyhoo, each of these teams already proved they're worth their salt in the 2022 season. The Jaguars managed the third-biggest comeback in NFL postseason history to defeat the Chargers in the Wild Card Round, only to have their season ended by the soon-to-be Super-Bowl-Champion-Chiefs. Meanwhile, both the Jets and Lions had remaining hope of a playoff run into Weeks 17 and 18, respectively.
If I had to pick one of these teams to invest in: Knowing that they're all listed at the same odds (meaning, I stand to make the same profit margin betting on each of them), I'll take the Jaguars. We already saw the leap he made from year one to year two. Now, he'll have another year under his belt in Doug Pederson's system, plus a shiny new(ish) receiver in Calvin Ridley.
Vegas is not loving the Arizona Cardinals in 2023, tied with the Houston Texans for the highest odds in the NFL. Translation: odds makers think it's very, very, very unlikely to happen.
There might not be a single team in the NFL that had as tumultuous a season as the Cardinals. Here's a reminder of what has transpired over the last year:
HC Kliff Kingsbury and GM Steve Keim signed contract extensions to stay with the team through the 2027 season.
QB Kyler Murray was signed to a five-year extension worth $230.5 million.
Their $230 million man then tore his ACL in December, ending his season and effectively putting his availability for 2023 in question.
Kingsbury was then fired after their 4-13 season, finishing his four-year tenure as head coach with a 28-37-1 record, one playoff appearance, and zero postseason wins. In the same breath, Keim resigned from his position as GM following the announcement of a medical leave of absence.
It seems that oddsmakers know this is already a lost year for the team. Rebuild, here we come???
If Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa plays an entire season, his chances at an MVP are relatively high. He has arguably one of the best-receiving duos in the league catching his passes. He led the NFL with a 105.5 passer rating, 8.9 yards per pass attempt and had one of the best TD-to-INT ratios in the league on deep passes.
Here's the catch, though. Oddsmakers are valuing Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa's MVP odds as though he'll play an entire season, without concern of suffering another concussion. That's fair, though. We can't predict when concussions will occur, and by all accounts, the consensus of medical professionals, including those of the team and NFLPA, seems to be that he's no more likely to suffer one due to his extensive history.
Despite this, from a betting perspective, we should exercise caution when investing in Tua's MVP odds. His future in the NFL felt like it was very much in question after his second stint in the concussion protocol (and third suspected concussion). Now that he cleared protocols (albeit, more than a month after diagnosis), he's tied for the fifth-lowest odds to win MVP. In fancy betting language, that means we'll see the fifth-lowest profit margin assuming we bet on him and he does win. It's just really difficult to place that bet knowing that one hit could squash the chances at your MVP wager cashing.
Consider the following:
Aaron Rodgers (+2500) — I'm not sure when Rodgers will emerge from his dark room, or what his decision will be regarding his future in football or with the Packers. But hey, you could get worse odds for a 4x MVP winner, even if he is kinda weird.
Russell Wilson (+5000) — He's got a fresh start, with a fresh coach. He's still got two great receivers. Not the worst dart throw.
Derek Carr (+5000) — Carr's got a chip on his shoulders and is ready to exert the ultimate revenge on the Raiders for slighting him. That revenge? Success in the 2023 season. 😈