It’s a matchup of the Patriots shocking QB1 selection pitted against the Dolphins sophomore looking to bounce back from a so-so rookie season.Since New England chose Jones over Cam Newton, Pats fans have watched their QB’s Offensive Rookie of the Year odds skyrocket. Most sportsbooks place Jones just below No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence to earn the award.The Patriots are favored (-3) to beat the Fins at home, but you may want to consider wagering against the public as the hype builds for a QB who hasn’t played an NFL regular-season down yet.Miami was the best team in the league against the spread (ATS is a bet against the point spread) last season (11-5), and boasts two of the NFL’s best corners. Xavien Howard and Byron Jones both have the potential to hand Jones a “Welcome To The League” moment. Howard led the NFL with 10 interceptions last season.

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It’s possible Tagovailoa outplays the rookie QB, too. In head-to-head props, Tagovailoa (236.5) is expected to outpace Jones (224.5) in passing yards, complete more passes (21.5 to 19.5 albeit on four more throws), and the two are tied in passing touchdowns (1.5) and interceptions (0.5).Though rookie wideout Jaylen Waddle — yet another Alabama product — said prior to the NFL Draft that he favored Jones over Tagovailoa, they could be the duo who make the difference.

The Takeaway

Mac Jones is one of the league’s best prospects, but has lofty expectations in his first-ever regular season NFL game. Consider siding with the team known to defy odds led by a quarterback out to prove he’s the rising star Miami thought he’d be.

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