nfl

NFL Week 3: 1 MNF Bet To Consider & 1 To Avoid


Published: 09/23/21
NFL Week 3: 1 MNF Bet To Consider & 1 To Avoid
GET SPORTS STORIES WITH A BETTING TWIST FROM THE PEOPLE'S PLAYBOOK.

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Eagles-Cowboys on Monday Night Football? Hell yeah! Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts are poised to give us the matchup of the week, with Dallas (-3.5) favored by slightly more than a field goal over Philly.

All eyes will be on the QB matchup as Hurts showed up and showed out over the first two weeks, throwing for 454 yards and three touchdowns without an interception and rushing for 144 yards and one score. The Eagles are 1-1, tied with the Cowboys. A divisional win could be the key to a playoff spot down the line.

History isn’t on Philly’s side in this one, though. Since Prescott became the Cowboys starter five years ago, Dallas is 11-4 against the spread (ATS) when hosting a divisional opponent.

Taking it a step further, the Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in games they’re favored by three or more points. The Eagles have slumped on the road in that same span, going 6-9 ATS against divisional opponents, and 1-4 as underdogs by at least three points.

A better wager to consider is the over/under for the game, set at 51.5. That’s the highest line for Philly this season, and probably dictated by a combination of the Cowboys’ 49 total points scored in two weeks, the Eagles putting up 32 points in Week 1 against the lowly Falcons, and the Achilles rupture suffered by Philly’s Pro Bowl DE Brandon Graham.

In four games this season, the sportsbooks have heavily over-estimated the total scores of Eagles and Cowboys games. The teams hold a 1-3 over-under record combined.

The Cowboys hit the over in Week 1 by 7.5 points but went under by 18 points in Week 2. The Eagles were under by 10.5 points in Week 1 and 21 points in Week 2.

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The Takeaway

While it might feel right to bet on the breakout 23-year-old, there’s little evidence to suggest siding with Hurts and the Eagles is the smart choice. Instead, consider taking the under with the sportsbooks predicting a shootout that could fall flat.


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