Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs enter their Week 5 matchup with as many losses (two) as they had for the entirety of the 2020 NFL season. A late-game fumble against the Ravens and three (yes, THREE!) turnovers in the first half against the rival Chargers left the Super Bowl runner-ups in the basement of a ferocious AFC West.

Yet the Chiefs are still favored to win the division at -105. That context is important to remember as the “subpar” 2-2 team is favored at -2.5 against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.

The Chiefs defense has been holding them back.

Ranking 27th against the rush (146 yards per game), 29th against the pass (291.8 ypg) and 31st in points allowed (31.3 ppg), this Chief defense has been flat out repugnant. *pinches nose* 

Football Outsiders has KC dead last in defensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), meaning they’re first in This Team Stinks Percentage (exact calculations TBD). Winning won’t come any easier this Sunday Night as they face Josh Allen and the Bills, who boast an offense that’s top-5 in passing yards per game (297.3) AND rushing yards per game (145.3). 

While the Chiefs defense has more holes than a block of swiss cheese, there is one man who gives the team, and bettors, some hope.

Patrick Mahomes is the prince who was promised.

What’s kept the Chiefs afloat has once again been their electric offense led by perennial MVP contender Patrick Lavon Mahomes II. He leads the NFL in touchdowns and has his offense ranked No. 2 in yards per game (427.5) and No. 1 in Offensive DVOA. They’re scoring a phenomenal 3.74 points per drive which would break the record currently held by… the 2018 KC Chiefs at 3.25 pts per drive. 

The question: can this fiery offensive pace continue against Buffalo’s great defense? The Bills rank 1st in pass yards allowed (148.8), are 4th in rush yards allowed (68.0) and have given up the fewest amount of points in the entire NFL (11.0 ppg).

The key to predicting this matchup might have to do with how these two teams got here. While Kansas City has struggled against playoff contenders like Cleveland, Baltimore and the L.A. Chargers, Buffalo has had a cakewalk of an opening slate. Their three wins against Miami, Houston and Washington came against opponents’ starting quarterbacks on just two total drives. On Sunday Night they’ll face not just Kansas City’s — but the NFL’s QB1.

The Takeaway

While Buffalo boasts a bodacious barricade we believe they have yet to face an offense as bombastic as these Chiefs. In the matchup between the unstoppable force (aka KC O) versus the immovable object (aka Buf D), consider betting the Kansas City Chiefs at home to cover the -2.5 point spread.