Predicting WNBA Team Win Totals

Author: Tony CavalloPublished: 05/11/23
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The WNBA season is right around the corner, leaving many fans brimming with anticipation. Thankfully, the sportsbooks have laid an early gift on our doorstep as we now have the chance to bet the best preseason future of all — team win totals!

What is a Team Win Total?

Team Win Total is a type of futures bet you can make before the season begins (and sometimes during the season as well). Every WNBA team is given a number, projecting how many wins they will get during the regular season. Your job is to predict whether they will get MORE or LESS wins than that number.

Whether you're a fan of a certain team or enjoy the demise of another, betting on team win totals is a glorious way to root for or against a team all season long. All twelve WNBA teams have win totals available to bet on, so let's dive in.

From worst to first...

Again, apologies to Indiana fans.

Indiana Fever: Over/under 10.5 wins

Oof. That is a low, low, low number. Indiana has had a disastrous run as of late and the sportsbooks are projecting that slump to continue as this is the lowest win total of any team this season. There is a glimmer of hope however as they now employ the current betting favorite for Rookie of the Year, Aliyah Boston. Can Boston's prowess be enough to wake the Fever out of their seemingly eternal slumber?

This is a franchise that, in 23 years of existence, has 13 playoff appearances, three finals appearances, and a championship in 2012. However, they have not finished above .500 since 2015 and have not had more than six wins since 2019. This horrid stretch has sunk the franchise's lifetime win percentage to 45.3%. It's been UGLY.

There are 40 regular season games on the WNBA calendar this year which gives them ample opportunity to win 11 of them. Sadly, I don't see it happening.

The Bet: Fever under 10.5 wins

Seattle Storm: Over/under 12.5 wins

It's the dawning of a new age in Seattle. Sue Bird flew off into retirement and Breanna Stewart moved as far away as she possibly could. But never fear Seattle fans, for it's EZI SZN.

Ezi Magbegor helped lead me to a WNBA fantasy championship in 2022 and I am all in on giving her the reigns of this team's frontcourt. Add on the dynamic Jewell Loyd and a fully healthy, freshly signed Kia Nurse and I think this team could surprise people. That crowd will get up if the Storm give them a reason to and I think it will be just enough to get them into contention.

The Bet: Storm over 12.5 wins

Minnesota Lynx: Over/under 16.5 wins

Not gonna lie, this team could stink. The Lynx won 14 games last year and lost their starting point guard Moriah Jefferson and also lost a goat to retirement in Sylvia Fowles. Even with four extra games on the schedule, I struggle to see them as three-victories-better than last year's team.

Napheesa Collier is back after missing almost a year on maternity leave and she should dominate the paint. First-round pick Diamond Miller could come in and give Aliyah Boston a run for her money in the race for Rookie of the Year. Overall, though, this team is a year away from being a year away.

The Bet: Lynx under 16.5 wins

Chicago Sky: Over/under 16.5 wins

Welcome to the Kahleah Copper Show. The 2021 Champs lost (deep breath) Candace Parker, Courtney Vandersloot, Emma Meesseman, Azurá Stevens, Allie Quigley and Sky Guy the mascot this offseason. It's Copper or bust as the Sky venture into the unknown.

They made a few under-the-radar free agency pickups as Courtney Williams and Isabelle Harrison will likely have feature roles in Chicago this season, but the Sky's hopes rely on the youth of their roster taking the next step. This team could sneak around and make the playoffs and Copper could be an All-Star, but I'm not betting on it.

The Bet: Sky under 16.5 wins

Los Angeles Sparks: Over/under 17.5 wins

Arguably the biggest addition to this team was made by subtraction. The Derek Fisher disaster, coupled with whatever happened with Liz Cambage last season, plummeted the Sparks to finish with the worst record in the league, non-Fever-edition (apologies, again, to all of Indiana). This team features a lot of new faces with a chance to make an impact in 2023.

The Ogwumike sisters return and get a bunch of new friends to play with. Jasmine Thomas comes over from a trade with the Connecticut Sun and free agent Azurá Stevens could have a huge role. Add on the potential return later in the year of Dearica Hamby from maternity leave and their awesome first-round selection of Zia Cooke, this team could mold into a solid playoff contender.

How fast they gel will determine whether they hit this win total or just miss it, but I am on the bandwagon for my hometown squad.

The Bet: Sparks over 17.5 wins

Atlanta Dream: Over/under 18.5 wins

This team is a jumble of potential. The defending Rookie of the Year Rhyne Howard welcomes 2023's 6th overall pick Haley Jones and 2023's 8th overall pick Laeticia Amihere to the Dream alongside two veteran guards acquired via trade this offseason in Alisha Gray and Danielle Robinson. The team also extended Aari McDonald's 2024 contract option and still has a handful of contributors from last season's team.

The loss of Tiffany Hayes and Erica Wheeler leaves a ton of minutes available to be had and it will be interesting to see how this roster shakes out. In order for Atlanta to be a playoff contender they will need Howard to the next step into stardom. I love the youth here and the future is bright but I am unsure they have enough to finish above .500 which they will need to pretty much do in order to hit this win total.

The Bet: Dream under 18.5 wins

Dallas Wings: Over/under 20.5 wins

Have you or someone you know been employed by the 2023 Dallas Stars? If so, you can seek legal help at 1-800-THEYDRAFTEDFOURFIRSTROUNDERS.

As if this article isn't long enough, let me walk you through the offseason of the Dallas Wings:

  • Fired their head coach

  • Traded for Natasha Howard and Crystal Dangerfield

  • Traded for Diamond DeShields

  • Let Isabelle Harrison walk in free agency

  • Drafted approximately 72 players in the 2023 draft

  • Traded away a 2025 1st round pick in the process

If you know what Dallas is doing, give me a ring and explain it to me like I'm five. Don't get me wrong, they have some excellent players. Arike Ogunbowale is a STAR and I still own a very nice studio apartment on Satou Sabally Island. There is potential here for Dallas to be very competitive OR for Dallas to be one of the big sellers at the trade deadline OR Dallas lets all 12 players on their roster somehow play 20 minutes a game and makes a midseason acquisition of Elena Della Donne just to add to the fun. They're honestly just Wing-in' it.

The bet: Wings under 20.5 wins

Phoenix Mercury: Over/under 21.5 wins

WELCOME BACK BRITTNEY GRINER. After missing all of last season, Griner returns and immediately makes the Mercury a threat to any team that faces them. In 2021, Griner averaged 20 points, 9 rebounds and almost 2 blocks per game. She was unstoppable and was the main reason Phoenix made its run to the Finals. The WNBA is better when Brittney Griner takes the floor.

Phoenix could be feisty this season, but only if they stay healthy. Diana Taurasi is still a walking bucket as she enters her 19th year in the league but can't be relied upon to run the offense every night. Shey Peddy is recovering from an Achilles tear and Skylar Diggins-Smith will likely miss most of the season on maternity leave. Depth is not strong with the Phoenix Mercury.

The addition of Moriah Jefferson will help with the workload on offensive possessions but this team is one injury away from trouble. If that makes you think I'm taking the under on Brittney Griner's return season, THINK AGAIN.

The bet: Mercury over 21.5 wins

Connecticut Sun: Over/under 22.5 wins

The Connecticut Sun were two wins away from a WNBA championship last season, so they do what most teams do when they get that close. They traded away their best player and got a new head coach.

Yes, you read that right.

Jonquel Jones, the 2021 MVP, was traded away to the New York Liberty as the Sun decided to get what they could for a player that was likely leaving in free agency as soon as she could. They also traded away Jasmine Thomas and both 2023 first-round picks that they had acquired.

In came a whole new group of talented players to collaborate with a roster that was still one of the most complete in the league. They are an older team with a bunch of solid pieces and a great home-crowd environment. You can't count them out but you likely can't count on them for 23 wins.

The bet: Sun under 22.5 wins

Washington Mystics: Over/under 24.5 wins

Ssh. Nobody say a word. Everyone keep talking about the two super teams on the West and East Coast. Never you mind the lowly Mystics. There is nothing to see here. Not a fully healthy Elena Della Donne, stripped of any minutes restrictions. Not a young core that has played together for many seasons in a row and knows how to operate in every situation. Not a trio of sneaky offseason pickups that add to the never-ending depth.

Move along.

The bet: Mystics over 24.5 wins

New York Liberty: Over/under 29.5 wins

Stewy, Sloot, Sabrina, and Jonquel freaking Jones.

That's it. That's the tweet.

The bet: Liberty over 29.5 Wins

Las Vegas Aces: Over/under 29.5 Wins

A'ja, Plum, Gray, Young and Candace freaking Parker.

That's it. That's the tweet.

The bet: Aces over 29.5 wins

Joking aside, these two teams are going to be fighting for home-court advantage to the very end. New York could take a few games to find their footing together, and the Aces could struggle to wear the giant target on their back while defending the Championship belt, but these teams are awesome. Just awesome.

If either of these teams loses more than a quarter of their games this regular season, I will eat my hat. Both will be scoreboard-watching the other one to make sure they don't fall too far behind as it is going to be a boat race to the top. All aboard.


Indiana Fever: Under 10.5 Wins (sorry again!)

Seattle Storm: Over 12.5 Wins

Minnesota Lynx: Under 16.5 Wins

Chicago Sky: Under 16.5 Wins

Los Angeles Sparks: Over 17.5 Wins

Atlanta Dream: Under 18.5 Wins

Dallas Wings: Under 20.5 Wins

Phoenix Mercury: Over 21.5 Wins

Connecticut Sun: Under 22.5 Wins

Washington Mystics: Over 24.5 Wins

New York Liberty: Over 29.5 Wins

Las Vegas Aces: Over 29.5 Wins

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